Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 19.965070 21.650195 23.466214 25.578199 27.978812 30.636864 33.822359
2025-09-21 17.204291 19.491438 22.123005 25.411247 29.462666 34.363174 40.854209
2025-09-28 15.771899 18.516725 21.851254 26.284746 32.160465 39.891535 51.222593
2025-10-05 14.222104 17.140528 20.832919 25.983474 33.221060 43.441275 59.830555
2025-10-12 13.126967 16.173456 20.163702 25.968639 34.569321 47.549226 70.305950
2025-10-19 12.327700 15.485302 19.750116 26.195942 36.231097 52.385745 83.415004
2025-10-26 11.526519 14.704245 19.103907 25.965852 37.105345 56.078920 95.713025
2025-11-02 10.856280 14.038126 18.541111 25.765772 37.954889 59.859751 109.608767
2025-11-09 10.323199 13.517606 18.131944 25.736970 39.056803 64.312251 126.937301
2025-11-16 9.828510 13.011685 17.693298 25.596367 39.917239 68.469071 145.659763
2025-11-23 9.390369 12.555928 17.288795 25.457629 40.742700 72.736995 167.194461
2025-11-30 8.990327 12.129345 16.893023 25.284264 41.463288 76.948011 191.438662
2025-12-07 8.645180 11.774141 16.597959 25.282363 42.582069 82.560432 225.822660
2025-12-14 8.289350 11.382220 16.216386 25.088501 43.287847 87.425172 262.712702
2025-12-21 8.158539 11.332079 16.389689 25.931455 46.361753 99.662240 349.995275
2025-12-28 7.832274 10.952463 15.982390 25.629587 46.831994 104.748030 409.701309
2026-01-04 7.580671 10.678547 15.735404 25.612082 47.962755 112.330883 502.713370
2026-01-11 7.386872 10.487161 15.616329 25.833467 49.711890 122.743420 650.750791
2026-01-18 7.137249 10.191018 15.293439 25.607365 50.306584 129.471853 794.400502
2026-01-25 6.909546 9.920203 14.998648 25.411004 50.950094 136.767238 986.916575
2026-02-01 6.721360 9.706444 14.793047 25.382648 52.043214 146.499561 1295.074945
2026-02-08 6.529826 9.478222 14.547371 25.244792 52.817238 155.414775 1699.249244
2026-02-15 6.350270 9.262521 14.312338 25.108791 53.580290 164.848750 2296.049393